Archive for September, 2010

Market Commentary for Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Posted: September 28, 2010 in Uncategorized

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses and weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are showing moderate losses with the Dow down 52 points and the Nasdaq down 24 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

 
 

The Conference Board gave us today’s only economic data during late morning trading. They announced that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September fell to a 7 month low of 48.5. This was well below forecasts and good news for the bond market because waning confidence mean consumers are less apt to make large purchases in the near future. This limits the likelihood of economic growth, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

 
 

Also today is the first of two Treasury auctions that may influence mortgage rates. 5-year Notes will be sold today with results being posted at 1:00 PM ET. These securities are not directly tied to mortgage rates, but the sale will give us an indication of investor appetite for U.S. debt. If the sale was met with a strong demand from investors, the broader bond market should react positively this afternoon, possibly leading to a downward revision to mortgage rates later today.

 
 

There is no relevant economic data scheduled to be posted tomorrow, but we do have the 7-year Note sale to digest. This sale is closer to mortgage debt than today’s sale is, so we can expect a more direct impact on mortgage pricing than today’s results. We can also expect the stock markets to play a major role in which direction bonds and mortgage rates move tomorrow.

 
 

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

Market Commentary for September 21, 2010

Posted: September 21, 2010 in Uncategorized

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after stocks failed to extend yesterday’s gains during early morning trading. The stock markets are showing small losses with the Dow down 18 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

This morning’s only factual economic data was August’s Housing Starts that showed surprising strength in new home building. Analysts were expecting to see a minor increase in starts but the 10.5% jump that today’s report revealed was well above forecasts. This can be considered a sign of housing strength, but since this data is not looked at as a major release, its impact on this morning’s trading and mortgage pricing has been minimal.

Fed Chairman Bernanke and friends are currently in their Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to discuss monetary policy and key short-term interest rates. They will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET with a statement of their actions. There is little possibility of seeing a change to key short-term interest rates. However, the post-meeting statement could very well lead to volatility during afternoon trading as investors dissect it in an effort to find when the Fed’s next move may come. What we particularly are looking for is further comments about the Fed buying more government or mortgage debt. If there is a clear indication that they will buy more in the immediate future, the bond market should react positively this afternoon, possibly pushing mortgage rates lower.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, so we can expect to see the stock markets influence bond trading and mortgage rates. If today’s FOMC results lead to a sizable move in the markets, there is a decent possibility of that reaction carrying into tomorrow’s morning trading also. Look for an update to this report today shortly after the financial and mortgage markets have an opportunity to react to the FOMC statement.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

First Time Home Buyer Home Affordability Calculators (Now vs. Later)

Posted: September 16, 2010 in Uncategorized

This is a really cool affordability tool, and there are a couple of other links on this page which will send you to appreciation and affordability data per Metropolitan Statistical Area.  (look for Portland!)

http://fatcopdx.com/FATCO%20TOuyNow.vs.Later/BuyNow.vs.Later.htm