Archive for June, 2010

Market Commentary for Tuesday, June 29th

Posted: June 29, 2010 in Uncategorized

 
 

Tuesday’s bond market has opened well in positive territory following a surprising drop in consumer confidence and significant losses in stocks. The stock markets are reacting negatively to the economic data and concerns about the global economy. This has pushed the Dow down 280 points and the Nasdaq down 76 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

 
 

June’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted late this morning, revealing a reading of 52.9. This was far short of the 62.0 that was expected and indicates that consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is very good ge rates because declining confidence usually means consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. That limits economic growth because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

 
 

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and mortgage rates yet again. This morning’s rally has pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note below 3.00% for the first time in quite a while. The question is whether it can hold below that level. If it remains below that threshold the next day or so, we could see more gains for bonds and even lower mortgage rates. But if the resistance is too strong, proving that 3.00% is a strong floor rather than a ceiling, mortgage rates would likely give back some of their recent improvements.

 
 

The next data scheduled this week comes late Thursday morning when the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for June. This important index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting a reading of 59.0. That would indicate that manufacturers felt business worsened from the previous month, when we saw a 59.7 reading. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be a weaker than expected reading.

 
 

 
 

 
 

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

Market Commentary for Monday, June 28, 2010

Posted: June 28, 2010 in Uncategorized

 
 

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning’s economic data gave us mixed results. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 15 points and the Nasdaq down 11 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point over Friday’s morning rates.

 
 

This morning did bring us a relatively important economic report with the release of May’s Personal Income and Outlays data. It showed that personal income rose 0.4% while spending rose 0.2%. The income increase was weaker than expected and can be considered good news for bonds. The spending reading was slightly above forecasts, meaning consumers spend more than thought. This is negative for bonds and mortgage rates, but traders are ignoring that portion of the data this morning.

 
 

Tomorrow’s important data is June’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). It is important to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident about their own financial situations, they are likely more apt to make large purchases in the near future. If it shows a sizable increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see the bond market falter and mortgage rates rise slightly. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 62.0, down from last month’s 63.3 reading.

 
 

Overall, tomorrow and Thursday’s data should bring some volatility in trading and mortgage rates, but Friday’s Employment report is definitely the most important of the week. Its impact can single-handedly lead to an improvement or increase in mortgage rates for the week. Next Monday is when the Independence Day holiday will be recognized. There is no early close for the bond market Friday ahead of it, but it will probably be a light afternoon in trading as traders head home for the long weekend. This could lead to additional volatility during morning trading, particularly with the Employment report being posted. So, I strongly recommend that you maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

Market Commentary

Posted: June 25, 2010 in Uncategorized

 
 

Friday’s bond market has opened flat after this morning’s economic data brought no significant surprises. The stock markets are also relatively calm with the Dow down 4 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close, but we will still likely see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates due to weakness late yesterday.

 
 

Yesterday’s 7-year Treasury Note auction actually went fairly well, especially when compared to Wednesday’s 5-year sale. However, the bond market wasn’t too impressed and we saw some lenders revise rates upward yesterday afternoon. Many may have chosen to reflect that revision in today’s rates, but overall we should see a slight increase compared to yesterday’s morning rates.

 
 

There were two economic reports posted this morning, but neither is considered highly important. The first was the final reading to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that came in at 2.7% annual rate of growth. This was a downward revision from the previous estimate, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. It means that the economy did not grow as much as previously thought during the first three months of the year. Unfortunately, this data is too old to have much influence on the markets and mortgage rates or we would have likely seen an improvement in today’s rates.

 
 

The second report of the day was the University of Michigan’s revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment. It revealed a reading of 76.0, up from the preliminary reading of 75.5. That means surveyed consumers were a little more optimistic about their own financial situations than they were earlier this month and they may be slightly more willing to make large purchases in the near future. Ideally, a downward revision would have been preferred, but it was not enough of a change to affect this morning’s mortgage rates.

 
 

Next week is busy with relevant economic reports scheduled for release every day except Wednesday. Monday does bring us some fairly important data when May’s Personal Income and Outlay figures will be posted. The week closes with the almighty Employment report Friday, but there is some fairly important reports being released in between. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

 
 

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

Bryce’s Referral Network

Posted: June 17, 2010 in Uncategorized

ReferralDirectory2

The above link is a list of referral partners who have indicated that they would provide exceptional service or discounts to any of my friends and family in support of keeping business where it belongs; locally, with friends and family!

This list, ideally, will grow with YOUR input, and eventually, I plan to have it available in a format which is more easily accessible and easier to read. So please, do yourself AND everyone else a favor, and get a hold of me about listing yourself as a service provider!

Here is the powerpoint presentation I put together for my final project.  In case any of you are interested in seeing what I have been toiling over for the past couple weeks.

Thermonuclear Fusion